Well, here we are again.
After a year of refuge, the Dodgers once again head into the offseason disappointed, knocked out by the eventual champions again. That’s a streak that dates back to 2016––the Dodgers either win the title, or lose to the winners.
I had originally intended this post to come after a couple of minor league review posts. I haven’t gotten to through those as quickly as I had planned, and given the Dodgers have already made a notable offseason move, I’m jumping this post to the front of the line. I’m still planning to do those––parts two and three of my MiLB review series, part one can be found here––in the next couple weeks.
This is a pivotal offseason for the Dodgers, though I probably don’t need to tell you that. After eight consecutive division titles, the third longest streak in baseball history, the Dodgers fell one game short of the 107-win Giants for the NL West crown. They got their revenge in the NLDS, winning a 2-1 thriller in game five in San Francisco, with prized trade acquisition Max Scherzer on the mound to close things out. It was moment of celebration, relief, joy, and passion––and it would prove to the be the first domino of their downfall. The team’s elite starting pitching fell apart in the NLCS, robbing the Dodgers of their biggest advantage. They were overworked and then underperformed.
More on that, and the 2021 Dodgers as a whole, later on.
The Dodgers enter the offseason with more holes to fill and less resources to fill them than in prior years. Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Kenley Jansen are all free agents, among others. The Dodgers have tens of million of dollars tied in up in Trevor Bauer, whose situation for next season is uncertain. At this point, criminal charges haven’t been filed yet, and it’s not clear if they will. Regardless of any charges, Bauer appears likely to be suspended. Here’s what ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote back on August 31:
Based on the rules as written in the joint policy, the relevant precedents and the belief of numerous sources familiar with the process, the question isn’t whether Trevor Bauer will be suspended. It’s a question of how long.
The expectation around the sport is that the league would pursue a suspension of at least one year. Multiple sources suggested a possibility of a two-year suspension. The league has been tight-lipped about any potential discipline as its investigation remains open and, accordingly, it has not made any decisions. Even without a sense from inside the league of where it’s leaning, sources cited a confluence of factors leading them to believe this could be the longest domestic violence suspension since the implementation of the policy in August 2015.
The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya wrote recently that it’s hard to imagine him throwing another pitch for the Dodgers, something I agree with. I wrote about my concerns with Bauer after he signed in February, and wrote once again about him several weeks after sexual assault allegations had him placed on administrative leave, stating my desire to not see him pitch for the team again. Since then, I haven’t seen any new information that would persuade me to reevaluate that opinion. Whether that’s via a suspension or release, I don’t really care.
A suspension of Bauer would eliminate his salary from counting toward the Dodgers’ luxury tax (a half-season suspension would eliminate half his salary, and so on), which would certainly help the Dodgers in rebuilding a starting rotation that currently has only three definite members: Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, and the newly signed Andrew Heaney, who agreed to one-year, $8.5 million dollar deal.
Heaney, who was traded midseason in 2021 from the Angels to the Yankees, had a year that could be described as a little worse than mediocre. In 129.2 innings, he had a 5.83 ERA and gave up twenty-nine home runs; in just 35.2 innings with New York, his ERA was 7.32 and gave up thirteen of those twenty-nine homers. His underlying stats were much better: his FIP of 4.85 and xERA (expected ERA) 4.01 indicate a pitcher who experienced his fair share of bad luck. But there’s also reason to believe in a rebound for Heaney. Heaney’s 26.9 strikeout percentage and 7.3 walk percentage are much better than you’d expect for someone with that kind of ERA.
Heaney’s fastball is legitimately interesting. It’s a pitch that too frequently caught a lot of the plate, which led to him giving up seventeen homers on fastballs. Batters hit .196 against his curveball in 2021, and whiffed 35% of the time. His changeup adds another at least average offering to his mix.
The short on Heaney is this: good stuff, gives up a lot of hard contact, and is not as bad as you thought he was last year.
Does that mean he’s the next Robbie Ray, as some have implied? That’s unlikely. I don’t think a fully optimized Andrew Heaney is a Cy Young candidate next year, but he can certainly be a solid mid-rotation starter, something the Dodgers lacked for months at a time in 2021. Maybe he’s just a #5 starter too, which is basically what you’re paying for at one year, $8.5 million. That’d be okay, but the Dodgers have bigger plans for Heaney, and they should have even larger plans for the rest of the starter market.
Starting Pitching
If the season started today, the Dodgers rotation would be Buehler, Urías, Heaney, Tony Gonsolin, and Mitch White. Could they win the NL West with that rotation? Yeah, I think so, though not very strongly. But it’d be difficult to win a championship, and it’d be the thinnest rotation the Dodgers have had in years, with prospects Andre Jackson and Ryan Pepiot next in line.
Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are both on the free agent market, as well as a whole host of other names: Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez and Noah Syndergaard top the market (edit: I wrote this section before the last three had signed). There’s a strong argument for bringing back Scherzer and Kershaw and attempting to run things back once again. Scherzer is the best starter on the market, and though he will cost a lot (likely around $40 million a year for three years or so), if you want to win a title in 2022, he probably gives you the best shot of that group. Kershaw, of course, is a franchise legend, and you won’t see me argue against bringing him back. He still performed at a high level when healthy last year, and the Dodgers should have better upper minors depth in 2022––with Jackson, Pepiot, and 2020 draftees Bobby Miller and Landon Knack all at the upper levels of the minors––to cover for him if needed.
But this wouldn’t be much of a section––or much fun for me––to just write about bringing those two back. Let’s imagine a scenario where one or both end up leaving for greener pastures. Where should the Dodgers pivot?
An enticing option for me is Kevin Gausman, who had a stellar year with the Giants after accepting a qualifying offer last offseason. Gausman is the rare above average starter who relies basically on only two pitches, with his fastball and splitter making up nearly 90% of his pitch mix. And his third most used pitch isn’t even a breaking ball––it’s a changeup, though only by 0.1% over his slider (both at 6% or less). Gausman’s fastball and splitter are good enough for him not to need much of a third pitch: batters hit just .133 and slugged .224 against his splitter, whiffing nearly 46% of the time.
So Gausman can be successful using mostly two pitches. But what if he had another above average pitch?
The great Eno Sarris wrote recently about the “Dodgers Slider,” aka “the sweeper”:
The Dodgers led the league in sweepers last year:
There’s a negative correlation between slider horizontal movement and hard hit rate (more hMOV = less hard contact), and a positive one between slider velocity and whiff rate (more velo = more whiffs). If the Dodgers and Astros are both going way in on a trend, odds are there’s something there, and the data backs it up.
Blake Treinen’s sweeper, the best example of the pitch’s implementation, helped him regain the dominant form he had in 2018. Evan Phillips, who was let go by the lowly Orioles this summer, pitched some big innings in the playoffs on the strength of his sweeper, a pitch he possessed before coming to LA but still used well after he got there.
The biggest question remaining is how teachable the pitch is. As I sit here and type at my desk, I haven’t the slightest idea. But, here’s my pitch (no pun intended): If the Dodgers think the pitch is easily teachable, they should absolutely be going after Kevin Gausman and attempt to add a sweeper into his arsenal. Gausman’s already had a ton of success with just two pitches, and he wouldn’t need to develop Blake Treinen’s slider to see results. With an above average fastball and elite splitter, a better breaking ball could be the missing piece between Kevin Gausman, Pretty Good Starter and Kevin Gausman, Elite Starter.
I want to address a couple possible counterpoints here. First, I can’t dismiss the possibility that the Giants, a very smart and progressive team in their own right, haven’t already tried to help Gausman improve his breaking ball. But if the Dodgers do think they have something the Giants don’t with the sweeper, and the debate is between Gausman at something like five years/$120 million and Scherzer around the same money at three years, give me Gausman.
Second and more importantly, I know this analysis can be applied to basically any player: “oh, ________ is pretty good, but what if the Dodgers just taught him an insane breaking ball?” It’s easy, requires me to prove absolutely nothing, and can be nearly universally applied. As I mentioned earlier, the sweeper appears to be somewhat teachable, but exactly how teachable it is is uncertain and likely to vary from pitcher to pitcher, and the same goes for the pitch’s effectiveness. So this line of analysis might appear to be a bit silly and speculative, and I absolutely want to acknowledge that. But if there’s a starter at the top of the market who could see the most benefit from a better breaking ball, it’s probably Gausman, and if the Dodgers think they can help him get there, he should definitely be in play.
The other free agent starter I’m highly interested in is Carlos Rodón, who I am shocked did not receive a qualifying offer. The former third overall pick had a disappointing career up until 2021, when he became one of the American League’s best starters. He did wear down a bit toward the end of the year, only pitching 132.2 innings on the season. Behind an elite mid-90s fastball that added three inches of vertical movement and nearly three ticks of velocity between 2020 and 2021, Rodón was 90th percentile or above in strikeout percentage, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and whiff rate.
The pitch for Rodón is much simpler: a former top prospect finally reaches ace status, combining great stuff with an above walk rate, though he struggled with health and fatigue during the second half. He might not give you 200 or even 175 innings, but the innings you’ll get should be high quality if he’s healthy. The contract predictions for Rodón appear to be something like three/four years, around $15-20 million per year. I’d happily do that if I was the Dodgers, with the hope of using Heaney, Gonsolin, White, and others to keep Rodón fresh for October.
I’d certainly be open to other names here, but Gausman or Rodón are the two I’m most interested in. Robbie Ray is the other guy you could put above Scherzer as the best starter on the market, though his track record isn’t as long and he comes with a qualifying offer attached. Stroman will provide consistency and innings, but doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts and is more of a mid-rotation starter than a frontline one, especially as he ages into his thirties.
There are starters available on the trade market as well. Reds’ starters Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray could be available, as could Athletics’ staters’ Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, or the Marlins’ Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez.
Of those, I see Montas as the most appealing when considering likely cost––and while the Dodgers are collecting pitchers who they traded for as top prospects but spent brief time in the organization before being flipped for major league players, they might as well bring him back. Montas threw both his sinker and fastball 29% of the time last season, but fared far worse with the sinker. Increased usage of his fastball, which averaged 96.4 miles per hour with above average vertical movement and a 12:45 spin axis, could lead to more strikeouts and greater success. Batters whiffed on his splitter over 51% of the time, slugging––yes, slugging––just .168 against it, giving him a truly elite secondary pitch as well. Like Heaney, Montas gave up a good number of homers (twenty, and ten on the fastball), and like Heaney he left too many fastballs over the plate. With his fastball characteristics, more frequently locating the pitch up in the zone could eliminate some of that hard contact and generate more strikeouts. Montas is another guy who could benefit from a better breaking ball, something the Dodgers might be able to help him with.
There’s one more really interesting starter target available by trade, though he likely wouldn’t be able to help the Dodgers next season. It’s Tyler Glasnow, the Rays’ ace who underwent Tommy John surgery this past summer. Ken Rosenthal reported shortly after the trade deadline that the Rays had explored trading Glasnow to the Cubs as part of a package for Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel. It’s an idea that makes sense given the Rays’ usual MO: Glasnow is set to be out for all or most of 2020, and won’t be pitching 200 innings in his 2023 return either. For years, the Rays have traded their premium starting pitchers before they hit free agency, and the notoriously cost conscious Rays probably aren’t too keen on holding and paying Glasnow in his arb two year (projected $5.8M, which would’ve been about 7% of their 2021 payroll) for him to just rehab. If the Dodgers or another team is willing trade for him this year and pay his 2022 salary, it could be a huge benefit in 2023, before Glasnow hits free agency in the 2023-24 offseason.
Regardless of who’s in the rotation, we should already have a decent idea of who might be following them up.
RELIEVERS
If the season started today, here’s what (I think) the Dodgers bullpen would look like: Blake Treinen, Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Kahnle, Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, Phil Bickford, Evan Phillips, and one of Garrett Cleavinger, Justin Bruihl, Victor Gonzalez, or David Price. That’s pretty good! There are still questions marks with that group: whether Ferguson and Kahnle can return healthy and effective from their late summer of 2020 Tommy John surgeries, whether Vesia and Bickford can continue their effectiveness from 2021, whether Brusdar Graterol’s addition of a cutter will finally allow him to turn a corner and become a dominant reliever, and whether the Evan Phillips hype train I’ve been conducting for the last two months will ever reach its destination. But most bullpens have question marks entering the year, and that’s a solid group to be starting out with entering the offseason. Treinen was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2021, and the same was true for Ferguson in 2020 before his injury. Kahnle, Vesia, and Graterol lead a good group of set up men to fill other high leverage spots.
Four Dodger relievers, all of whom pitched in high leverage in 2021, are now free agents: Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel, and Jimmy Nelson. I could see any of them being brought back, but with this team’s other needs and the current state of the bullpen, Jansen seems like the likeliest casualty of this offseason given his probable contract expectations. I am partial to Corey Knebel, who was excellent when healthy in 2021, and will be yet another year removed from his 2019 Tommy John surgery next year. If he can be had for a one year deal around $5 million or so, I would welcome a reunion. The same goes for Joe Kelly, who had another strong year before going down with a biceps injury in the NLCS. Whatever your opinion on Kelly is, he’s likely been better than you thought with the Dodgers:
In addition to those four 2021 Dodgers, I’ve got another some external options I’m interested in. The Dodgers saw former Cardinal Luis García in the wild card game, and he had himself a breakout year. Combining an upper 90s sinker with seam shifted wake and a slider that garnered whiffs on 54.5% of swings, García earned high leverage opportunities and a likely payday this winter, even if on a one year deal.
Next is Mychal Givens, who would bring a unique element to the Dodgers’ bullpen.
That fastball along with a plus changeup allows Givens to limit hard contact, as he scored in the 96th percentile for exit velocity this past season.
His former teammate in Cincinnati, Michael Lorenzen, is reportedly being pursued as a starter by some teams this offseason, as he’s the rare reliever with a five pitch mix. If he wants to remain in relief, he could be a multi-inning option for the Dodgers to pursue.
Jake Diekman was phenomenal in 2020 and was a rumored Dodgers’ target at the trade deadline back in 2019. He regressed this year, but still has a mid 90s fastball, extremely horizontal slider, and an elite strikeout rate from the left side.
Kirby Yates and Trevor Rosenthal both signed one year deals last year, but neither pitched in 2021 due to injuries, and both could be targeted on a one year deal again this offseason. Rosenthal would line up with some previous Dodger reliever reclamation projects like Treinen and Knebel. He had arguably one of the best fastballs among all relievers in baseball in 2020.
More random relievers I wouldn’t mind on seeing get an NRI (non-roster invite to spring training) or be signed on a minor league deal: Heath Hembree, Keone Kela, Rex Brothers, Adam Conley, Kyle Crick, Jesse Hahn, Kyle Zimmer, Dillon Maples, and Kyle Keller.
The Dodgers are starting from a good spot with their bullpen, and probably don’t need more than two, maybe three external additions or returns.
Offense
Compared to other teams in the league, the Dodgers’ offense is also in good spot entering the offseason. If we assume the implementation of the universal DH in 2022, the Dodgers’ worst hitter in their Opening Day lineup would probably be one of Edwin Rios or Matt Beaty if they decided to stand pat and make no offensive additions.
Of course, the Dodgers won’t stand pat. They could lose both Corey Seager and Chris Taylor to free agency this offseason, and there are a whole host of other names available. Carlos Correa (getting this out of the way now: no), Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, Starling Marte, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, and Nelson Cruz headline the market. Outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to be posted and come over from Japan, and he is the best purely-offensive player to be posted in some time.
In addition to Correa––which I don’t feel like I need to explain––I have a hard time seeing the Dodgers going after Javier Baez or Nelson Cruz. The notoriously undisciplined (at the plate) Baez still hit over thirty homers last year, but there are obvious concerns about how he might age given his deficiencies. Someone might be willing to give him $80 million or even more, but I sure hope it’s not the Dodgers. As for Cruz, he would add another power bat to the middle of the lineup, but based on 2020, the Dodgers seem more likely to not have permanent DH and instead rotate players through that spot to give them days off their feet. It will allow them to give Justin Turner extra rest and get Will Smith into the lineup on days he doesn’t catch; if you’re assuming a couple days a week DHing for Smith and 1-2 for Turner, which I am, that’s already half the week’s games filled. Cruz has played only 61 innings in the field over the last five years, and asking him to take a position even on a part time basis might be too big an ask.
I’m intrigued by the possibility of Freddie Freeman, and one evaluator reportedly sees the Dodgers as a potential fit. If the Dodgers lose Seager and Taylor, Freeman would slot in nicely into the Dodgers lineup, moving Max Muncy over to second and giving the Dodgers’ another left handed bat to pair with Muncy and Cody Bellinger. He’s the only non-Correa player who would actually be an offensive upgrade over Seager. It’s tough to imagine him leaving Atlanta, and he’d likely require something around six years with a $25-30 million AAV. For a first baseman in his age 32-37 years, that’s a tough sell, but if there’s one who’s worth it, it’s Freddie.
Schwarber, another power hitting lefty, has little experience at first base and is limited otherwise to left field or DH, but he did play ten games at first for the Red Sox last year, so the Dodgers could conceivably give it a shot. Nick Castellanos is another offense-over-defense corner bat, though he can play both outfield corners. The Dodgers could experiment with him at first too, though, and it wouldn’t be ridiculous of them (or another team) to try.
The Dodgers were reportedly interested in Semien last winter, and he would be as close as the Dodgers could get to matching Seager’s offense with another non-Correa middle infielder. Trea Turner would slide over to shortstop, and Semien would play primarily second base, leaving the Dodgers with baseball’s best middle infield once again.
Suzuki is a really intriguing target for me, and one I wouldn’t mind seeing at all in a Dodger uniform. Here’s a pretty detailed scouting report on him from Prospects Live, if you want an in depth look at what he could bring. His power is undeniable, and his advanced pitch recognition skills (in comparison to other recent Japanese imports) and age (27) lead me to be more optimistic about his transition to the states. His contract projections are something like 3-5 years, $10-12M AAV, which I think is reasonable, and could wind up to be a bargain if he becomes an above average starting outfielder in the majors.
There are plenty of high end trade targets on the offensive side too: The Athletics’ Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte, the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez, and the Twins’ Byron Buxton could all be available this winter. Ramirez has two years left of team control and would come at a big cost, but can play both second and third base and would slide right into a Corey Seager-sized hole in the lineup. The oft-injured Buxton is one of the most talented players in the game, but has played more than 100 games just once in his career. He’s a free agent after next season, but his 61-game sample in 2021 was that of an MVP type performance, putting up 4.2 fWAR in just over a third of a season. He would also provide an insurance policy if Cody Bellinger’s struggles continue in 2021 (I don’t think they will, but they could).
Dustin Nosler of Dodgers Digest recently wrote about two lesser trade targets I’d be interested in: Miami’s Garrett Cooper and Oakland’s Chad Pinder. Both are exit velo monsters, play multiple positions, and have experience in a part time role. As far as a right handed bench bat goes, the Dodgers’ internal options are Sheldon Neuse and Jacob Amaya (just added to the 40-man and has yet to see Triple-A). Miguel Vargas (or Michael Busch, but there’s a bigger need for a righty bench bat than a lefty) could play a role at some point in the season, but he too has yet to see Triple-A.
Looming large over the Dodgers offensive decisions this offseason is how much they expect Gavin Lux to contribute next season, and at what positions those contributions might come. The former top prospect had another disappointing season, although he played his way into a playoff role with a hot September. Lux turned 24 this week––for reference, he’s still younger than prospects Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Andre Jackson, Landon Knack, and James Outman, among others. But he’s yet to find consistent success at the major league level. If neither Seager nor Taylor return and the Dodgers don’t make any significant middle infield additions, Lux will enter the spring as the expected Opening Day second baseman. Even if one of them does return or the team makes an addition or two, I still like the idea of Lux playing some outfield. As he showed in limited time last year, he has the athleticism to be an above average outfielder, he just needs more reps. It’s better for those reps to come in February and March rather than September and October, but there weren’t a ton of options this past season.
What I Would Do
While there are no monetary limits in this hypothetical exercise, I do plan to be at least somewhat realistic with these plans. This is my “everything goes right plan,” but there’s plenty of scenarios where the Dodgers have a successful offseason making none of the moves I’m about to list. So even though I couldn’t care less about what Mark Walter’s bank account looks like by March, the Dodgers aren’t going to throw $100 million (in average annual value) at this offseason, and neither will I.
Anyways, my optimal offseason plan (contracts are neighborhood guesses): Clayton Kershaw for three years, $57 million; Carlos Rodón for four years, $64 million; Freddie Freeman for six years, $165 million; Luis Garcia for one year, $3.5 million; Trevor Rosenthal for one year, $1.5 million; a trade for Garrett Cooper; and non-roster invites for Heath Hembree and Rex Brothers.
Though the Dodgers likely Opening Day rotation would have four lefties in this scenario, I’m more focused on getting good starters, and Rodón can provide ace level quality for a #3 starter’s contract. The Dodgers’ projected playoff rotation would be Buehler, Urías, Rodón, and Kershaw, a foursome I’d feel comfortable with in October. If Kershaw does end up leaving, my pivot move would be to replace him by trading for Frankie Montas, possibly exploring a trade for him and Chad Pinder.
Freeman essentially fills Seager’s slot in the lineup, with Max Muncy playing more second base, Trea Turner moving full-time to shortstop, and Gavin Lux mixing in in the infield and outfield. Although the Dodgers already have a top five first baseman in Muncy, their flexibility allows them to add one of the game’s best hitters in Freeman. Cooper provides a righty bench bat who would start on a number of teams in the league.
Seager and Freeman are largely interchangeable in this scenario, and I would expect Seager to get a similar deal AAV-wise with a couple extra years added on. He would be a very close second preference to Freeman. Why Freeman over Seager? While it’s close, Freeman is the better offensive player, and the Dodgers’ defensive flexibility allows them to seamlessly bring him in. There are downsides: the Dodgers would be buying the age 32-37 years for a first baseman––albeit a likely future Hall of Fame one––and we’ve seen that kind of thing work out poorly for other teams. Seager also gives the Dodgers a backup plan in case Trea Turner leaves after next season, even if Seager should probably move to third base at some point in the future. If the Dodgers can’t get either, I would pivot to Chris Taylor, Kyle Schwarber, or Seiya Suzuki; all have different defensive profiles, but are in the second tier of offensive free agents who should get something $11-16 million per year, and the Dodgers’ flexibility would allow them to fit in even if there isn’t a clear opening. Schwarber in particular feels like a Dodgers target: big power, big exit velos, high strikeout and whiff rates, but rarely chases and walks a bunch.
The Dodgers would probably try to shuffle him between left field, first base, and DH.
This isn’t to say I expect them to sign Freeman, because I don’t. I’m not really expecting any of these things to come to fruition, maybe one or two if I get lucky. These are all good players desired by a number of teams. Regarding Freeman, It would be a surprise just to see him leave Atlanta, especially after winning a World Series title. Seager is the more likely of the two to be in a Dodger uniform next year. But I do think it’s an option the Dodgers should explore if there’s willingness from Freeman’s side.
The bullpen would be Treinen, Ferguson, Kahnle, Graterol, Vesia, García, Bickford, and Rosenthal––and if Rosenthal isn’t healthy to start the year, the Dodgers can have Evan Phillips or one of the myriad of young lefties fill the last spot. I think the bullpen doesn’t need more than a couple new additions. One middle-tier guy (García, Knebel, Kelly, Givens, etc.), and maybe one of Rosenthal or Kirby Yates feels about right.
That would be about $65 million added to next year’s payroll––though a full season suspension for Trevor Bauer, which I discussed above as a strong possibility, would eliminate more than half of that number toward the Dodgers luxury tax figure. That’s another big factor I haven’t discussed much here yet: the pending expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, with a lockout and transactions freeze likely to follow. No one knows what the luxury tax will look like under the new CBA. Some proposals from the league & owners have been to lower the luxury tax, a development that would harm both players and the Dodgers. I wouldn’t expect the union to accept that one without major concessions, concessions I’m not sure the owners are willing to make. But that point underlies this entire article and the analysis within: we can’t be sure how the new CBA will affect team building, and with a lockout a week away, a lot of major moves might not happen until after that’s resolved.
The 2021 Dodgers
Similar to the last two years, I could once again make a good case for why this year’s iteration of the Dodgers is the most talented Dodgers team of my lifetime. The offense at one point started all all-stars + Will Smith at spots 1-8, with current or former MVP candidates comprising more than half the lineup. The rotation began strong and deep, was weakened in the middle but was bolstered by a future Hall of Famer at the trade deadline. The bullpen was the deepest and most reliable one of this era, picking up the slack for when the starting rotation could not.
There are a number of things I’ll remember about this season. The trade for Scherzer and Turner was one of the biggest trade deadline moves of the last several decades, for any franchise. Regardless of whether Scherzer returns, I’ll always be glad I got to watch one of the best pitchers of this generation be a Dodger for a couple months. The same goes for Albert Pujols, a former best hitter in baseball for a half decade and one of the best hitters of all time.
This team dealt with their lumps. The offense never really seemed to all click at the same time, despite the talent and big names. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy all missed time with injuries. The Dodgers didn’t have a full five man rotation for the majority of the season. Their signature depth was no longer there, with Joc Pederson & Kiké Hernandez elsewhere. All this, and the Dodgers still managed to win 106 games, the most ever for a reigning World Series champion.
The Giants bettered them by one game, but it was the Dodgers who got the last laugh. It was the playoff series we deserved, and one of the best series of this era. Here’s a take that I know won’t be popular with everyone: once the Dodgers won game 5 of the NLDS and beat the Giants, I was content with this season. That’s not to say I didn’t care about them winning beyond that, or that I wasn’t disappointed when they didn’t. But being content is different than being overjoyed.
This season was about the Dodgers and Giants (sorry, Braves bloggers), arguably the most historic season in a century-long rivalry filled with them. After six months of back and forth, the Dodgers came out on top, in about as dramatic fashion as one could imagine. The pure, unadulterated high of adrenaline and excitement of the moments after Wilmer Flores’ check swing was called a strike is a feeling that will remain with me for a long time. That it came with Max Scherzer, the Dodgers’ rent-a-Hall-of-Famer, on the mound made it all the more special.
So, I’ll look back on this season fondly, even if it didn’t end in a World Series title. If anything, last season has allowed me to recognize the difficulty of winning a World Series even more, and given me a newfound appreciation and perspective for the seasons without one. No longer do I have to worry about the ever-present dread of wondering whether I’ll ever see this franchise win a title after every postseason loss. They reached the mountaintop––I hope and believe they’ll do it again soon, but I don’t need them to every year. I don’t feel the need to dwell on the missed opportunities of the NLCS and this postseason, like I have in previous years. Sometimes, you just lose, and that’s okay. That’s a newer feeling for me, and it’s one I’d like to make the most of for the time being.
The Dodgers of this era have changed dramatically, but there’s always been one constant, and that’s Clayton Kershaw (apologies to Kenley Jansen). He is undoubtedly my favorite athlete of all time, and someone who I respect immensely as a person and player. I remember the closing moments of his 2014 no-hitter vividly. There’s still a Kershaw fathead on the wall in my childhood bedroom, with a slight rip around the ear from when it was originally placed there. The Dodgers have made my tear up once in my life, and it wasn’t right when they won it all last year; it was in the minutes that followed, watching the joy on Kershaw’s face and every teammate who went out of their way to find him in the celebration, knowing how much it meant to him after years of postseason failures. I’ve watched the video from the camera following Kershaw from the bullpen to the dogpile dozens of times (most of them in the 24 hours following the end of that game).
I will be sad if he leaves, but content with his time in LA if he does. And that’s a decision he’s earned the right to make. After all he’s done for this franchise in the last decade and a half, I genuinely just want to see him make the best decision for him and his family. If that’s pitching for the Rangers, close to his hometown, I’m alright with that too. And no one––especially not below-average LA Times columnists (clickbait piece intentionally not linked)––should be telling him what that decision is. That’s a hill I will die on.
If this is the last season with Kershaw, Jansen, Seager, and Taylor, it will have been one to remember. If Max Scherzer’s time in a Dodger uniform is limited to just two and a half months, I’m glad to have witnessed it. If this is a new era for the Dodgers, I’m excited to see what it brings. New faces, new names, and new memorable moments are in our future, one way or another.
Enjoy the offseason, folks.
Future Dodgers 