This was originally going to be a section in part three of my minor league review series––you can read part one here––but I fell behind on stuff, and the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft is later this week, so this is getting its own post.
If you need a quick explainer on how the Rule 5 Draft works, check here. Big point to be aware of if you already aren’t: the player must remain on the active roster of the team who selects him (or trades for him) the entire year.
Let’s start with a big list of players who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
C: Hunter Fedducia, Ryan January, Wladimir Chalo
IF: Jacob Amaya, Eddys Leonard, Jorbit Vivas, Justin Yurchak, Devin Mann, Omar Estévez, Leonel Valera, Imanol Vargas, Sauryn Lao, Clayton Daniel, Deacon Liput, Sam McWilliams, Luis Yanel Diaz
OF: James Outman, Ryan Noda, Jeren Kendall, Drew Avans, Joe Vranesh, Edwin Mateo, Aldrich De Jongh, Ismael Alcantara, Yunior Garcia
Pitchers: Michael Grove, Guillermo Zuniga, Robinson Ortiz, John Rooney, Marshall Kasowski, Gus Varland, Jose Martinez, Yadier Alvarez, Mark Washington, Juan Morillo, Logan Salow, Justin Hagenman, Jeisson Cabrera, Benony Robles, Austin Drury, Melvin Jimenez, Parker Curry, Max Gamboa, Jose Hernandez, Franklin De La Paz, Joan Valdez, Daniel Cruz, Nelfri Contreras, Adolfo Ramirez
Not every player there has a realistic shot of being taken (most don’t, at least in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft), and not every player will be discussed here.
Before I start, I do want to address one quick note. I had previously believed that Eddys Leonard, Jorbit Vivas, and Robinson Ortiz would not be eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft, which was incorrect. Those three all signed in July of 2017, but did not play an official game until the 2018 season. Players who sign at eighteen years old or younger are not eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until they’ve played five professional seasons. Back when the international signing period was in July, newly signed players participated in the Tricky League, an informal league for new signees. It wasn’t an official league and didn’t track league-wide stats, and it was my belief that players only accumulated seasons toward the Rule 5 draft who played on official minor league teams. I had informed Dustin Nosler of Dodgers Digest of this belief shortly after he published his Rule 5 preview, so if you read there that Leonard, Vivas, and Ortiz weren’t eligible, that’s on me, not him.
Anyways, back to the prospects. Like last year, I don’t think there are any must-adds, or anyone who is certain to get selected if not protected, but there are definitely some guys at risk.
Let’s start with the guys who I’m 99.9% sure won’t be selected (if one of them is, I will gladly take the L): Cs Ryan January and Wladimir Chalo; IFs Omar Estévez, Imanol Vargas, Clayton Daniel, Deacon Liput, Sam McWilliams, Luis Yanel Diaz and Sauryn Lao; OFs Jeren Kendall, Joe Vranesh, Edwin Mateo, Aldrich De Jongh, Ismael Alcantara, and Yunior Garcia; and pitchers Robinson Ortiz, Jose Martinez, John Rooney, Yadier Alvarez, Logan Salow, Juan Morillo, Jeisson Cabrera, Benony Robles, Austin Drury, Melvin Jimenez, Parker Curry, Max Gamboa, Jose Hernandez, Franklin De La Paz, Joan Valdez, Daniel Cruz, Nelfri Contreras, and Adolfo Ramirez.
I argued Estévez should’ve been protected last offseason, and not only was he unprotected, he went unselected, and then put up a 48 wRC+ at Triple-A in 409 plate appearances. At 23, he was still young for the level, but I’m not sure how a team could keep him in the majors all year after that kind of season.
Kendall, the former first rounder, went unprotected and unselected last year and didn’t do anything to change that from happening this time around.
Garcia put up some impressive exit velocities in Arizona, but he hasn’t even seen Low-A yet. No chance.
Ortiz could’ve been a breakout candidate had he stayed healthy, but he only pitched 11.2 innings this year at High-A, and all in May. He’s not getting taken. Morillo also missed most of the year with an injury (1.2 innings) and only pitched at High-A. Same thing. Likewise, Alvarez only pitched a few innings on a rehab assignment in the complex league, and won’t be taken despite the famous name.
Jose Martinez got promoted to Double-A after a solid first half at High-A, but really struggled. He’s a pitch-to-contact sinkerballer, and those guys can be attractive as #4/5 starter types. Right now, I don’t think there’s enough confidence in Martinez to miss enough bats to get there for a team to place him on their active roster. The same goes for Gus Varland, the second piece in the Adam Kolarek trade, who has better swing and miss stuff than Martinez but didn’t garner a ton of strikeouts either. John Rooney, the 2018 third rounder, looked like he had made some strides this year, with the best strikeout rate of his career by a good margin. He too missed time with an injury, and didn’t pitch in a game after mid-June. It’d be unlikely to see him selected given the shorter track record of swing and miss stuff.
Salow, a lefty reliever at Triple-A, walked 33 batters in 41 innings, and while lefty relief is always needed, the Dodgers have quite a few of those guys on their 40-man already.
Of the more likely contenders, that leaves Feduccia, Leonard, Amaya, Vivas, Mann, Yurchak, Outman, Noda, Avans, Grove, Zuniga, Kasowski, Hagenman, and Washington. I’ll divide them into two groups.
Legit Contenders: Eddys Leonard, Jacob Amaya, James Outman, Jorbit Vivas, Michael Grove, Guillermo Zuniga
In my mind, the top contender for protection is either Eddys Leonard or James Outman. Leonard was the system’s biggest breakout player, excelling at both Low-A and High-A as a 20 year old, while playing shortstop, second base, third base, and centerfield. The big question with him (and Jorbit Vivas) is whether a team would consider keeping a 21 year old with less than a half season at High-A on their major league roster for an entire season, something that would not be conducive to their development. With a pitcher, you can at least make the argument that even though they’re facing way more advanced hitters, they can try to hide them in low leverage outings and still have them do work in between outings in bullpens. With hitters, it’s much harder to hide a player like that, and I’m not sure a team would take the shot on Leonard or Vivas and try.
Outman is a much more realistic risk to be selected, especially after his strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he recently started the league’s all-star game. Outman can contribute at all three outfield positions as a plus defender and is a good runner, and could theoretically play a bench role on a major league team next season. A rebuilding team that believes there’s starting outfielder-level quality in his bat could definitely take a shot on him.
A year ago, if you had asked me to rank these candidates, Jacob Amaya would’ve been at the top. But after a rough year at Double-A (75 wRC+), with more power but less walks and less contact, Amaya isn’t the near-lock he seemed a season ago. The infield defense is still strong, but he’s at less of a risk to be selected than someone like Outman.
Michael Grove has a very interesting case. If you look at his season-long ERA and walk rate, you’ll wonder why he’s listed here. But Grove still has some of the best stuff among starting prospects in the system, and he made a mechanical change at the end of July and saw improved command and results from there on out. Courtesy of Josh Thomas:
Would it look strange to see a team take a guy with a 7.86 ERA in 71 Double-A innings last year? Maybe. But you’re buying the stuff here with Grove if you’re buying at all, and all it takes is one team to take a chance.
Another guy with big stuff is Guillermo Zuniga. The 6’5” righty originally signed with the Braves, but was declared a free agent after their big international free agency scandal a few years ago. He’s got an upper 90s fastball and a plus slider; it might seem like a lot of relievers have something like that nowadays, but Zuniga is still one of the best reliever-only prospects in the system, and he’s the type of arm a team would feel comfortable taking in the Rule 5 Draft.
The last guy in this group is Vivas, who like Leonard had a big breakout this past season, splitting time between Low-A and High-A at age 20. Vivas always had a strong hit tool, but added muscle and weight between 2019 and 2021, which allowed him to hit for more power this season. Vivas spent less time at High-A than Leonard did, and plays a less premium position (2B/3B), so I think there’s less of a shot he gets taken if unprotected.
My preferential ranking, based on both value and likelihood of selection:
- James Outman
- Eddys Leonard
- Michael Grove
- Jacob Amaya
- Jorbit Vivas
- Guillermo Zuniga
The gap between spots is small, and you could make a good argument for any of these guys to be added. If I’m making predictions, I’ll guess Outman and Amaya are the two who get added on Friday.
Could Have a Shot: Hunter Feduccia, Devin Mann, Justin Yurchak, Ryan Noda, Drew Avans, Leonel Valera, Marshall Kasowski, Justin Hagenman, Mark Washington
Here’s an interesting fact: Hunter Feduccia is currently the Dodgers’ third catcher. All their catchers at Triple-A became minor league free agents, so Feduccia is third in line right now behind Will Smith and Austin Barnes. Feduccia could conceivably be a backup catcher on some major league team next season, but he should be at Triple-A for more development. I think he’s got the best chance to get added out of this second group because of the current lack of catching depth in the upper minors.
Valera had a strong first half, looking like one of the system’s breakout players, but really faded down the stretch in High-A, with a 54 wRC+ and strikeout rate above 40% from August on. MLB Pipeline recently called him the Dodgers’ toughest 40-man decision, but frankly I don’t think this is a tough one at all. He’s 22 years old and just struck out 36% of the time at High-A; he’s barely (and debatably) ready for Double-A, let alone the majors. Make no mistake, Valera is talented, toolsy, and plays a premium defensive position well, but he’s probably two years away from a big league debut and if the Dodgers are giving a 40-man spot to a High-A infielder, I would rather it be Leonard or Vivas. So unless the Dodgers are really high on Valera internally, it’s hard for me to see him being worth protecting.
Yurchak led the minor leagues (not including the complex leagues) in batting average, though he still didn’t hit for very much power. At 25, it’s worth wondering whether he’ll ever develop average game power, but his plus on-base and contact skills make him an interesting name to watch here.
Noda, the second piece in the Ross Stripling trade, had a strong first year in the Dodgers’ system, hitting 29 homers with a 15.7% walk rate at Double-A. He too is 25 years old though, and the Dodgers do already have a couple of older corner outfield prospects on the 40-man in Zach Reks and Luke Raley.
Devin Mann had a scorching hot September (8 HR, 197 wRC+ in 17 games), which helped raise his season line considerably. He also got some outfield experience due to necessity in Tulsa, adding a couple more defensive positions for a guy who already played first, second, and third base. It’s tough to see him getting added over someone like Amaya, but the added versatility makes him more valuable heading into next year.
Is Drew Avans the next Zach McKinstry? Probably not, but the fellow 33rd rounder has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2018. He hit .275/.388/.438 (112 wRC+) with a 15.4% walk rate and 19 steals in his first go at Triple-A. He’s already 25 and can play all three outfield positions as well. Avans isn’t mentioned much on prospect lists, but if there’s an out of nowhere addition this year, he feels like the guy.
Kasowski is another guy who I would’ve protected last year, but like Estévez, he too went unprotected and unselected. He missed much of the year with an injury, and is at less of a risk to get picked than he was last time around. If he’s not added, he could find his way onto the 40-man at some point in the year if the Dodgers need an internal relief arm.
Washington and Hagenman both had solid years in the bullpen at Double-A Tulsa. I see Hagenman and his above average slider as the more likely of the two to be added or selected over the 6’7” Washington, but it’s not by much and neither is at much risk. If there’s a relief prospect added, I would bet on Zuniga.
Coming Next
I should have my offseason manifesto done in the next week. With free agent pitchers already signing, I’m working to finish that as quickly as possible.
Future Dodgers 