It’s Monday, June 6th (or at least it will be when this is published), and it feels like a good time for a minor league update. Not only are we now just about two months into the minor league season, but the rookie leagues begin today, with the Dodgers’ two Dominican Summer League teams and Arizona Complex League team officially beginning their seasons. The full-season affiliates are off today, tomorrow will be the first of many days this summer with all seven affiliates playing. Fun stuff, if that’s what you’re into.
With the draft pushed back to mid-July, I considered doing a full new set of rankings and player notes now, with another update in early August right after the trade deadline. While there are certainly players who have moved up in my mind, it ultimately just felt a little too soon to do a full-scale reranking of my top 101 organizational prospects. So my midseason update will come after the draft as usual, and I’m using this to fill the otherwise-long gap between the two.
Risers, Fallers, Top Dogs, and Injuries
All 2021 draftees will be discussed in the section following this one.
Risers
If we’re going to talk about risers in the Dodgers system over the last two months, it would be borderline criminal to not lead off with Jacob Amaya. Amaya led all Dodger prospects in wRC+ for the majority of the season before recent downturn saw him fall to a still-impressive 134, but is still among the leaders in OPS, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and swinging strike rate. He’s one of two prospects in the system with more walks than strikeouts, along with Jorbit Vivas. Even more encouraging, Amaya’s increased his exit velocities, and his barrel, whiff, and chase rates put him in elite company in the minor leagues. Combine that with his already-solid defense at shortstop, and you’ve got a prospect who has materially improved his standing over the last couple months, and should see Triple-A in the not too distant future.
Like Amaya, James Outman was also added to the 40-man this past winter. He’s tied for the lead among prospects with thirteen homers, and has played strong defense at multiple outfield positions. He too should see Triple-A not too far from now. Ryan Ward and Jonny DeLuca are also in that four-way tie at thirteen homers (along with Michael Busch). Both started hot, among the system leaders in wRC+, but recent cold streaks have pushed them both down below 100 on the season. On the flip side, Devin Mann‘s hot May has moved him up to the system leaders in wRC+, OPS, and swinging strike rate.
Michael Grove‘s strong second half in 2021 propelled him to a spot on the 40-man roster, and he carried that into 2022, becoming the first player on an Andrew Friedman team to be promoted straight from Double-A to the majors. He halved his walk rate at Double-A, earned a spot start in the majors, and then was “promoted” to Triple-A, where he’s only had one start so far. Speaking of walk rate improvements, Kyle Hurt‘s doesn’t look any different on the surface, but over 60% of his walks (9/15) have come in just two outings, both of which lasted less than two innings. In his other seven outings, he’s struck out 35 and walked just six over 24 innings. Those two bad outings also include seven of his nine earned runs, with just two runs allowed over the other seven. So, there’ve been some inconsistencies, but he’s looked downright dominant at times this year.
If there’s a pitching equivalent of Jacob Amaya in the system so far this year, it’s gotta be Gavin Stone, who earned a promotion to Double-A after 25 innings in High-A with a 1.44 ERA. Since then, he’s only pitched better, allowing just one run in his first sixteen Double-A innings. Over the last few weeks, Stone’s been the most impressive pitcher in a Tulsa rotation that also includes Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, and Clayton Beeter.
Fallers
Moving over to the more negative side, let’s start with a couple of bats in Tulsa. After a 30-homer campaign in 2021, Brandon Lewis has a 27 wRC+ and a 33% strikeout rate in his first go-around at Double-A. Fellow corner infielder Justin Yurchak has a polar opposite profile to Lewis, but hasn’t hit much either after leading all full-season affiliate players in batting average in 2021.
Andre Jackson has struggled with control, walking 28 batters in 28 innings and being passed over for spot start opportunities. He’s been better his last two starts, allowing two runs in ten innings, but has still walked one more than he’s struck out in those starts. Tanner Dodson came over from the Rays for Luke Raley this spring, and he too has struggled with control, walking twenty batters in 18.2 innings while allowing 21 earned runs.
Top Dogs
Bobby Miller was my top prospect entering the year, and to this point I don’t have any regrets or desire to change there. That may come by the time I redo my rankings, as Diego Cartaya certainly has a strong case for the best prospect in the system. But Miller has made improvements on his fastball shape, which I felt was his biggest impediment to becoming a front line starter entering the season. Cartaya just recently earned a promotion to High-A after a Low-A run that puts him in elite company:
If you’re counting on that list, that’s fourteen players over the last decade including Cartaya. Of the eleven non prospects, seven of them (Bichette, Buxton, Gallo, Mookie, Seager, Tatis Jr., and Vlad Jr.) have had at least one 4-win season in the majors. Then you’ve got an impact bat in Eloy Jimenez, two first baseman who weren’t able to put it together (Bird & Bradley), and a guy I genuinely hadn’t heard of before (Herrera). So in total, eight of the eleven non-prospects are what I’d call impact players, I’d subjectively put six of those eleven in the “star” category. It of course guarantees nothing, but it’s still a really impressive group for Cartaya to be part of.
Andy Pages has held his own in Double-A (109 wRC+) despite being more than three years younger than the league average player—he’s striking out even less than he was last year in High-A, at 22.6%. Miguel Vargas has taken the move up to Triple-A like he has all his others, hitting well (124) wRC+, limiting strikeouts (16.8%) and walking at a career-high rate (13.4%). At 22, he’s almost five years younger than the Pacific Coast League average age. Michael Busch followed Vargas up from Double-A last month, after laying waste to Double-A pitching (175 wRC+ in 31 games). He’s still figuring out the higher level (75 wRC+ in 15 games so far), but I imagine he and Vargas could be in contention for a major league bench spot if any more injuries occur.
Finally, Ryan Pepiot made his big league debut this spring, struggling with walks and controlling his pitch count, but still allowing just four runs in 11.1 innings. He’s been downright dominant at Triple-A, with a 1.75 ERA that leads all PCL pitchers with at least thirty innings pitched.
Injuries
As for the guys we haven’t seen (or haven’t seen much of), Hyun-il Choi and Carlos Duran have both reportedly begun throwing, and we could see them back at affiliates soon. I haven’t heard anything concrete on relievers Cameron Gibbens or Jeisson Cabrera, but both are in Arizona at Camelback Ranch.
Edgardo Henriquez and Kody Hoese are both recent additions to the injured list, which is unfortunate given both were having strong Mays, with Hoese having the best stretch of his pro career just prior to his injury.
2021 Draft Returns
It’s been only eleven months, far too soon to judge the success or failure of a particular draft class in any sport, especially baseball, but I’d also be lying if I told you I wasn’t incredibly pleased with how the 2021 class has looked so far in that time.
Before going on the injured list with an unknown shoulder issue, Maddux Bruns looked every bit of a first round pick in Rancho. In a late March report, The Athletic’s Keith Law was so impressed by Bruns in a spring game, he postured that Bruns “might make teams question why he wasn’t the firth high school pitcher off the board[,]” and could become one of the minor’s best pitching prospects if he throws enough strikes. Bruns has had some trouble with walks, but it’s still been an overall improvement from last year, and some walks are okay when you’re a 19 year old striking out 15.5 batters per nine innings in Low-A.
The Dodgers’ third rounder, Peter Heubeck, just recently made his full-season debut for Rancho this past week. So, nothing really to work off there yet, but I know Dodgers’ people are really high on Heubeck. Nick Nastrini (4th) and Emmet Sheehan (6th) were two guys who jumped immediately in their pro debuts last year, but have been inconsistent as of late—Sheehan might be working through some mechanical changes though. Nonetheless, those both still look like guys who’d go much higher in a redraft held today.
Meanwhile, Ben Casparius (5th) had one of the best Mays in the system, earning his way into a promotion, joining his draft classmates in that High-A rotation.
The Dodgers also drafted a bunch of college relievers, including Ryan Sublette (7th), Ben Harris (8th), Jordan Leasure (14th), and Madison Jeffrey (15th) who have all looked impressive, with particularly strong fastball traits for each. Leasure was the first player in this class to reach Double-A. Michael Hobbs (10th) and Antonio Knowles (12th) are both striking out more than a batter per inning in High-A, but I would put them below those first four.
Twelfth rounder Ronan Kopp, who is the same age as Bruns and Heubeck, leads the system in K/9, striking out more than two batters per inning. He recently got moved into the Rancho rotation, where he should be stretched out beyond his usual two-inning outings. If there’s a Day 3 guy to keep an eye on from this class, I think it’s Kopp, a 6’7” lefty with a fastball into the upper 90s.
Lael Lockhart (9th) was a senior signee, but has done well in a move to the starting rotation this season. He knows how to pitch, and if he can gain any fastball velocity (not impossible, but not to be assumed either for a 24 year old), he might pitch his way into some prospect relevance and a promotion.
Justin Wrobleski, the Dodgers’ 11th rounder and the only overslot signee from Day 3, is doing well in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and we should see him at an affiliate later this summer.
Damon Keith (18th), the only hitter from this class, has been one of the best hitters in the system, doing things that no other minor leaguer was in April. He’s put himself on the prospect map, and should get a promotion to High-A sometime soon.
Gabe Emmett (19th) is the only guy we really haven’t seen aside from Wrobleski, throwing just four total innings since he was drafted and just 0.1 innings this year. He might pitch more now that the ACL has started.
I’m also including River Ryan in this section, the Padres’ 2021 11th rounder who was acquired for Matt Beaty. Ryan just moved up to Rancho, but reports on him from Arizona were impressive, with him having one of the system’s better fastballs from a metrics standpoint. The Dodgers are rolling him out as a starter, but he is a guy who could move quickly if he were in relief.
ACL/DSL Players to Watch
The Dodgers’ Arizona Complex League roster is led by a group of 2021 international signees, with SS Wilman Diaz, SS Rayne Doncon, and C Jesus Galiz all making the move up from the Dominican Summer League. While those are the most noteworthy guys, OF Juan Alonso, 3B Andy Espinosa, C Thayron Liranzo, and OF Victor Sosa are all nineteen years old or younger, and all are making their stateside debuts as well.
On the pitching side, RHPs Joel Ibarra and Maximo Martinez received highly complimentary write-ups in FanGraphs’ latest rankings, and are two guys to keep an eye on, as well as RHP Waylin Santana.
In the Dominican Summer League, the group is led by this most recent class of international signees. INF/OF Samuel Munoz, RHP Accimias Morales OF Josue De Paula, SS Jeral Perez, SS Mairo Martinus, and RHP Luciano Romero are the guys I’m watching the most, but returnees OF Roger Lasso, RHP Missael Soto, and RHP Lesther Medrano should be monitored too. For more details on this most recent international class, check out this article from Baseball America’s Ben Badler.
Rule 5 Forecasting
Earlier this season, I added a Rule 5 Decision Timeline sheet to the Prospect Portal, and also wrote a mini-Twitter thread about the Dodgers’ potential roster crunch after this season. Since then, one of my five projected locks to get a 40-man roster spot and be protected from the Rule 5 draft (Ryan Pepiot) was protected, but Diego Cartaya, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, and Andy Pages will still need spots this winter.
Now, four spots to add is far from impossible, but those aren’t the only possibilities to be added either. Jose Ramos is a strong contender, though he’s not close to the majors at High-A. Alex De Jesus is there now too, but I wouldn’t put him in the same amount of danger of being picked in the Rule 5 draft as Ramos. Arms like Carlos Duran and Hyun-il Choi will both be first time eligibles too. They’ve each missed time with injuries this season, which could limit their exposure to other teams. I’d put Duran, with his premium stuff, at a great risk to be taken.
Ryan Ward and Jonny DeLuca were playing their way into protection contention early in the season, but as of now I wouldn’t think they’d be added or picked. Devin Mann and Hunter Feduccia, on the other hand, might both be playing their way into contention if they can get up to Triple-A this year and keep hitting. Relievers like Guillermo Zuniga, Nick Robertson, Mark Washington, Justin Hagenman, and Aaron Ochsenbein could also be in consideration—I’d have Zuniga at the top of that list right now, followed by Robertson.
Kody Hoese will be eligible for the first time, and it’s hard to see a team taking a shot on him with current track record of performance, even with his recent hot streak. But, if he comes back from the injured list and picks up where he left off, a strong season at Double-A from a former first rounder will be enough to put him into contention.
For now, aside from my four locks, I’d have Ramos, Duran, and Zuniga as the next three in need of protection, but things of course may change by the time the protection deadline comes around. Some of these guys could also end up in other organizations—teams with roster crunches often trade to lessen than crunch. And that’s not even to say that the Dodgers’ will certainly have a crunch, just that they might, but such is the life of a team that develops well. It’s a good problem to have if it becomes a problem at all.
Future Dodgers 